Baseball is America’s pastime, and for good reason. The crack of the bat, the pop of a glove,and the thrill of an extra innings game keep fans coming back year after year. For some, theexcitement goes beyond just watching – it’s about putting your money where your team’s loyaltylies.
This guide will walk you through the ins and outs of betting on Major League Baseball, from understanding basic wagers to advanced stats and tips on finding value. Let’s step up to the plate and knock your MLB betting strategy out of the park!
Moneyline Wagers: Betting on a Straight-Up Winner
The most common MLB bet is the moneyline, where you simply pick the winner of the game. Odds are set based on the perceived strength of each team, with favorites getting negative odds(i.e., -150) and underdogs getting positive odds (i.e., +130).
To calculate potential payouts, divide the odds by 100. For example, at a -150 odd, a $100 bet would return $66.67 in profit. +130 odds would return a $130 profit on a $100 wager. While favorites win more often, upsets do happen! So, don’t ignore the value an underdog can provide.
Run Lines: Adding a Handicap for Favorites
Run lines add a “handicap” of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by 2 or more runs to “cover the spread.” The underdog team can lose by 1 run and still cover.
Run lines typically pay out better than moneylines but require the favored team to win big. Again, focus on the value – sometimes a +1.5 run line is the smarter play, even if you think the favorite will win.
Totals: Betting on Combined Runs Scored
Also known as over/unders, totasl bets allow you to wager on the combined number of runs scored by both teams. Sportsbooks set a line, say 8.5 runs, and you bet whether the final score will be over or under that number.
Study teams’ offensive and bullpen strengths, weather forecasts, and stadium factors to make smart totals bets. Unders can be profitable when two aces pitch or the wind blows in. Overs cash when sluggers are hot, and the weather heats up.
First 5 Innings: Wagering on Opening Frames
First 5 innings bets work like totals, but only count runs scored in the first 5 frames. This limits the impact of late-game bullpen implosions.
Key factors here are starting pitcher stats, early game conditions, and each team’s top hitters. Focus on lineups and rotation strengths rather than full-game tendencies.
Series Bets: Wagering on Multi-Game Outcomes
For a more long-term wager, you can bet on the outcome of a series between two teams. Odds are set for overall series winners or the number of games won.
Give a significant edge to teams with better starting pitching depth to win the series. Home field advantage also comes into play over 3+ games. Ride hot teams when betting short 2-game series.
Player Prop Bets: Wagering on Individuals
Want to bet on your favorite player? Player props allow you to wager on outcomes like “Will Mike Trout hit a home run?” or “How many strikeouts for Max Scherzer?”
Study batter vs. pitcher matchups, recent performance trends, and ballpark factors. Pitcher win totals, and strikeout props can offer great value on aces. Beware rookie call-ups when betting hits/HRs.
Live Betting: Wagering In-Game
Sportsbooks let you bet on MLB games in real time. For example, if you’re a Detroit Tigers fan, you can enjoy the game while wagering on Detroit Tigers odds for extra fun. Lines shift as the game unfolds, allowing you to jump on odds boosted by big swings in momentum.
Pay close attention to game situations when live betting. Favorites see their odds improve after falling behind early. Capitalize on overreactions to early scoring. Watch for tired bullpens and hot hitters.
Hedging Your Bets
Hedging involves placing bets on both sides of a game to guarantee a profit. This limits your upside but protects against a loss if your original wager misses.
For example, if you bet $100 on the Yankees at -150, you could hedge by betting $60 on their opponent at +130. This guarantees a $10 profit if the Yankees win and cuts losses to $40 if they lose.
Hedging is useful when you want to lock in profits on a future bet or eliminate risk on a big wager late in the season. Just beware of the reduced payouts compared to letting bets ride.
Shopping For the Best Lines
One easy way to increase your MLB betting edge is to compare odds across multiple
sportsbooks. Thanks to competition, you’ll often find variance in the lines for the same games.
For example, Book A may list the Red Sox at -140 vs. the Blue Jays, while Book B has -135. That 5-cent line difference adds up over time! Shopping lines take a little extra effort but pay off.
Maximizing value by getting the best number is hugely important. Don’t just default to betting with one sportsbook out of laziness or brand loyalty. Shop around!
Managing Your Bankroll
The key to long-term MLB betting profits is proper bankroll management. Set aside a dedicated amount and scale your wagers based on bankroll size. Aim to risk ~1-2% of your total bankroll per bet.
Avoid betting more than 5% of your bankroll on any single wager, and never “chase losses” by increasing bet size. Patience and maximizing value will overcome short-term variance.
Finding Overlooked Value
The key to long-term MLB profitability is finding value by betting on overlooked teams, capitalizing on line movement, and pouncing on opportunities early.
Fading inflated public perception, digging into starting pitcher stats, and tracking lineup changes can reveal hidden value. Be ready to bet against the grain and zig when others zag.
The Bottom Line
Baseball betting is a profitable pastime if you put in the time to study teams, players, and stats. Understanding the types of wagers available is just the beginning. Setting a budget, managing bankroll, and researching matchups separates winning bettors from casual fans. Don’t let the long season intimidate you. Take it one game, series, or prop at a time. Before you know it, your baseball betting bankroll will be rounding third and heading for home as you enjoy America’s pastime to the fullest.
